Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Political Recovery Wednesday...

I’ve been doing a lot of writing lately for work – mainly on cloud security topics. And it has been fun. But I thought I would take a few minutes and write a good ol’ political blog, seeing as I haven’t done so in a few years, and it has been on my mind a ton lately.

This election may very well prove to be a tipping point in American politics.  On the Democrat side, you have a centrist woman, former first lady, who is often thought to be one of the nastiest persons that has ever been in government service.  She is facing a self-proclaimed socialist from New England, who has about zero racial diversity appeal, but is very popular with the Millennials and the other left leaning lemmings that are still looking for the “Hope and Change” they were promised with Obama.

As if that wasn’t crazy enough, the Republican cast of characters include a neurosurgeon with ZERO government / political experience who also happens to be black, but has about as much racial appeal as the socialist from Vermont; a right wing ideologue from Texas who was born in Canada and may also believe that the world is flat, a Cuban American that is part of the Republican party establishment, but is also so centrist that he does not really know what he believes, and a reality show populist with REALLY BAD HAIR that has to wait for the latest polling data before having a position, and that position only lasts as long as the next poll.

For those that have yet to embrace the horror, I am here to tell you that it will likely be Trump vs. Ms Clinton in the general election.  And here is why:

Love them, hate them, indifferent to them, the process used to nominate candidates for President (and, for that matter, elect the President) are not directly related to the popular vote.  They are based on a representative system of delegates (and electors).  So, while NO ONE seems to like Trump or Clinton as an individual, enough delegates have pledged their support (through various means) that they will likely be the nominee from each of the two parties.  

The Democrat rules are different than the Republican ones, but it still amounts to the same thing – Trump and Clinton have amassed a huge majority of the convention delegates for the states that have had primaries / caucuses.  So by the time the party conventions come along, the nomination process will be little more than a formality.

There is also some talk of a brokered convention on the Republican side (that is the level of animas the party leaders have for Trump). But unless something significantly shifts in the coming weeks before the primary, I just don’t see how that is going to happen.  It isn’t like he only leading by a couple of delegates – after Super Tuesday, he has more delegates wrapped up already than all of the other candidates COMBINED.     

Strangely, while the main stream media would have you believe that no one likes Trump, they were obviously not polling any of the hundreds of thousands of party elites (defined as those that attend primary elections and caucuses) that voted OVERWHELMINGLY for him in primaries and caucuses across the country.  So either they are wrong (the media is NEVER wrong) or something just doesn’t add up.  

Regardless, the weeks and months leading up to the general election will be interesting, and will likely be different than anyone has seen in politics in their lifetimes.  

Buckle up, this ride is just starting.